TWO-STAGE FORECASTING METHOD OF THE FUTURE ENERGY DEMAND
Abstract
A two-stage method was developed to forecast the future demand for energy tested on the example of forecasting the demand for primary energy and electric energy at the national level (top level) and aggregated economic activities – sectors of economy and households (bottom level). Analytical solutions were proposed for the calculation of forecasts on top and bottom levels, analytical dependences were established to ensure the forecast accuracy and consistency between top and bottom levels. The obtained forecasts minimize the sum of squares of discrepancies for a set of possible solutions. A comparative analysis was made and the advantages of the proposed and known methods were identified. The examples of calculated demand for primary energy and electric energy at the national level and aggregated economy sectors and households in Ukraine until 2030 were presented. Bibl. 8, Table 8.
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